Mortality estimation due to COVID-19 in Cartagena, Colombia, at the beginning of the pandemic, the year 2020, using the capture-recapture method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33610/01229907.2022v4n2a2Keywords:
Mortality, COVID-19, }, 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, Public health surveillance, vital statistics, epidemiological methodsAbstract
Introduction: The variation review of the population mortality allows us to identify the possible impact of a new infectious disease, for which it is desirable to know the deaths attributed to a certain infectious agent such as SARS-CoV2. The various sources of information review make it possible to compare, detect possible underreporting and estimate mortality approximate to reality for making timely decisions. In May 2020, the INS provided technical assistance in the Special and Cultural District of Cartagena to establish the mortality underregistration from COVID-19, using the capture-recapture method, to provide rapid information on the pandemic introduction and progress.
Methodology: A descriptive study using the capture-recapture method to estimate mortality from COVID-19. The sources of information were the administrative records of the RUAF and the burial licenses.
Results: 254 deaths from COVID-19 were identified from March 1 to May 18, 2020, in the RUAF-ND registry and 203 deaths in the burial and cremation license registry. Comparing the two sources, 307 deaths were estimated for that period. The mortality rate estimation using the capture-recapture method was 29,3; with RUAF, it was 24,3; and with death licenses, it was 19,4. The percentage of underreporting was 17,2 % concerning RUAF-ND.
Conclusions: The RUAF-ND and burial licenses analysis and the capturerecapture methodology allowed us to have a more realistic approximation of the behavior of deaths from COVID-19 in the Cartagena District at the time of the virus introduction to the territory. This analysis contributed to the opportune characterization of the event's magnitude and the launch of specific control measures.
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